NYC's Upset Election Was Drawn Along an Odd Line: Car Ownership

Summary

NYC's Upset Election Was Drawn Along An Odd Line: Car Ownership NYC DSA, New York City Economic Development Corporation New York City held its primaries for November's mayoral race yesterday, where New Yorkers delivered an upset: Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won out over disgraced former governor Andrew Cuomo in the first round of voting. Mamdani was expected to either suffer a close loss overall or creep back from behind through successive ranked-choice rounds, depending on which poll you trust, but the 33-year-old never dipped below a 7% lead over his centrist opponent — an upset that even the Mamdani camp didn't expect. Looking over the data shows an odd trend: Mamdani's victory was built on the backs of people who don't own cars. Aaron Kleinman, director of research for The States Project, identified the trend late last night on Bluesky. It's the kind of thing that New York residents would almost immediately notice on a map of the five boroughs — Mamdani won in higher-density districts, Cuomo took less-dense areas — but the data backs up the vibes. The less time you spend in a car, the more likely it is you backed Zohran Mamdani. Car owners supported Cuomo On pure alignment, the breakdown makes sense. Mamdani doesn't own a car, preferring to take transit or bike, while Cuomo famously owns a Dodge Charger Scat Pack Widebody that he operates with little regard for NYC driving laws. Each represents their own constituency with their modes of transport, but the differences go deeper than that. Mamdani ran a heavily pro-transit campaign, promising fast and free buses and an increase in bike lanes, while Cuomo wanted to flood the subway system with police — a move widely loathed and viewed as wasteful by the subway riders who see cops scrolling TikTok on the platforms every day. Even beyond transit itself, car ownership in New York City's outer boroughs speaks to their population density. The chart in the lead image here dates back to 2018, before the pandemic c...