The Leverage Paradox in AI

Summary

In 1930, the economist John Maynard Keynes predicted that automation and other expressions of technological progress would lead to a 15-hour workweek by the early 21st century.In his essay Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren, he wrote:The economic problem may be solved, or be at least within sight of solution, within a hundred years. … Thus for the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem — how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him.Now that we're coming up on the 100th anniversary of that essay, it's safe to say Keynes' prediction wasn't just wrong in magnitude, but wrong in direction as well.Many of us today work longer hours than people did in the 1930s, especially today's high earners. And that's not because technology failed to advance, but because the advances were available to everyone. This is a distinction with a difference because for most of us, the purpose of work isn't just to do better in life. It's to do better than others.This is the leverage paradox. New technologies give us greater leverage to do more tasks better. But because this leverage is usually introduced into competitive environments, the result is that we end up having to work just as hard as before (if not harder) to remain competitive and keep up with the joneses.Enter AIBefore AI, we had to beat our competitors to the top of a staircase. It was tricky to climb because we had to ascend the steps manually, writing our own words, designing our own graphics, producing our own sounds, and coding our own software.Now, AI has turned that staircase into an escalator. Which is easier to climb! Yay!Except… the leverage paradox means we all have to climb way higher to get to the top while competing against many more people.Those who understand this paradox — not just intellectually but in a deep, intuitive way — are the few who will make it to the top ...