Earth models can predict the planet’s future but not their own

Summary

Scientists could theoretically do something similar for ESMs. “You can reestablish that model,” Baez said. “So if some European government decides to take on responsibility for this exascale model, I can imagine that being done.” However, noted Lawrence, to be useful, a model needs to be accompanied by staff with the relevant scientific and technical expertise to run it. To think that other countries could gather all those ingredients at once might be optimistic. “It's not like this is the only responsibility that’s something being dropped in the lap of other countries,” said Baez, “and whether they will have the funds and the energy to pursue all of these, it's actually unlikely.” Dessler said that if E3SM disappears, or isn’t supported, people could use CESM, which has the same technological origins. Beyond that, said Dessler, other ESMs exist. And they’re still plenty advanced even if they’re not exascale. To Dessler, the potential obsolescence of any given model is not the issue. “I think the much bigger problem is they're just going to zero out the work being done at DOE on climate,” he said. And that zeroing includes people. “What's really chilling, I think, is the loss of human capital,” he said. “You cannot generate a scientist out of thin air,” he continued. “It takes years to produce a scientist, and to produce a senior scientist takes decades. And so if you don't have any senior scientists, you're screwed for a very long time.” To understand how that changing variable will affect the planet would likely require a model even more powerful than an ESM. “I think that's really the story,” Dessler said. This article was originally published on Undark. Read the original article.