Anti-establishment versus authoritarian populists and support for the strongman

Summary

1 Introduction The rise of populist leaders, often labeled as strongmen, has drawn significant scholarly and media attention over the past two decades (Ben-Ghiat, 2020; Rachman, 2022). Studies emphasize their charisma (Pappas, 2016; McDonnell, 2016) and rhetorical style (Ostiguy, 2009), which foster a direct bond with the masses (Germani, 1978; Mény and Surel, 2002), often through “low,” coarse, and folksy language to project authenticity (Ostiguy and Roberts, 2016). Research on the economic and political consequences of populist governance has predominantly produced negative findings. Funke et al. (2023) show that prolonged populism results in economic decline, lower GDP, and diminished macroeconomic stability. Ruth-Lovell and Grahn (2023) argue that populist governance erodes electoral, liberal, and deliberative dimensions of democracy, while Erhardt and Filsinger (2024) contend that the primary danger to contemporary democratic survival stems from executive aggrandizement carried out by elected populist leaders. Despite these harmful consequences, populist leaders continue to enjoy substantial public backing, raising a crucial question: why do citizens back populist strongmen, even when such support threatens democratic institutions and economic stability? The literature presents an ambivalent relationship between populism and democracy. On one hand, some scholars argue that populism is inherently illiberal, as it rejects electoral competition and institutional checks and balances—core tenets of representative democracy (Müller, 2014; Urbinati, 2019; Pappas and Kriesi, 2015). Populist movements embrace majoritarian politics and seek to suppress opposition, often through a charismatic strongman who pledges to dismantle institutional constraints in the name of executing the people’s will. Under this interpretation, populism becomes synonymous with authoritarianism (Bugaric, 2019). On the other hand, an alternative perspective suggests that populism can serve as a c...