AI Is Not a Bubble

Summary

There's a popular argument going around that goes something like this:AI is a bubbleOk, maybe it's useful and will survive, butIt can be a bubble and still survive later, like the .com bubbleBasically the back and forth is the following.PERSON1: "AI is a bubble."PERSON2: "No, it isn't. Bubbles are when things turn out to be hype, and they get proven wrong and die."PERSON1: "No, it just means that it's overinflated, like the .com bubble. We still have the internet don't we?"This sounds like a good argument, but I don't think it is.From a recent LinkedIn interactionNotice that we're using the word "bubble" here. What does that mean?A perfect example of this argument in the wild.People who think AI is a bubble could say it's "overheated" or it's "inflated"—which are descriptive terms that definitely apply.But they're not using those terms. They're using the term "bubble."So, what is the single most defining characteristic of a bubble? Like...in real life.Bubbles pop.From a recent LinkedIn interaction.That's the whole point of bubbles. When you go into nature, do you see bubbles that expand and contract and survive?No. They pop. It's kind of their main characteristic!So here's a better explanation of this whole thing.The .com thing was a bubble. And it popped. Because that's what bubbles do. The confusion comes from thinking that the bubble was the internet itself—like Marcus did above—which obviously hasn't gone away.The bubble was not the internet.The .com bubble was the belief that if you took your mid-ass business to the internet, you would instantly become rich.That is what popped.The AI analog So, the trick with this whole AI argument is to find the claim that one thinks is the actual bubble.Do people actually believe that if you just "add AI" to what they have, they'll instantly become millionaires? Maybe. Or maybe a year or two a go. But most of those people have already collided with reality.No. I think what most anti-AI people like Marcus (Hutchins, and Gary M...