Andrej Karpathy – AGI is still a decade away

Summary

The Andrej Karpathy episode.During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.It was a pleasure chatting with him.Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Labelbox helps you get data that is more detailed, more accurate, and higher signal than you could get by default, no matter your domain or training paradigm. Reach out today at labelbox.com/dwarkeshMercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our accounts, cash flows, AR, and AP all in one place. Apply online in minutes at mercury.comGoogle’s Veo 3.1 update is a notable improvement to an already great model. Veo 3.1’s generations are more coherent and the audio is even higher-quality. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting https://gemini.google(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits(00:40:05) – RL is terrible(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth(01:17:36) – ASI(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long(01:56:20) - Future of educationDwarkesh Patel 00:00:00Today I’m speaking with Andrej Karpathy. Andrej, why do you say that this will be the decade of agents and not the year of agents?Andrej Karpathy 00:00:07First of all, thank you for having me here. I’m excited to be here.The quote you’ve just mentioned, “It’s the decade of agents,” is actually a reaction to a pre-existing quote. I’m not actually sure who said this but they were alluding to this being the year of agents with respect to LLMs and how they were going to evolve. I was triggered by that because there’s some over-prediction going on in the industry. In my mind, this is more accu...