Sam Altman's Dirty DRAM Deal

Summary

Or: How the AI Bubble, Panic, and Unpreparedness Stole ChristmasWritten by Tom of Moore’s Law Is DeadSpecial Assistance by KarbinCry & kari-no-sugataIntroduction — The Day the RAM Market SnappedAt the beginning of November, I ordered a 32GB DDR5 kit for pairing with a Minisforum BD790i X3D motherboard, and three weeks later those very same sticks of DDR5 are now listed for a staggering $330– a 156% increase in price from less than a month ago! At this rate, it seems likely that by Christmas, that DDR5 kit alone could be worth more than the entire Zen 4 X3D platform I planned to pair it with! How could this happen, and more specifically – how could this happen THIS quickly? Well, buckle up! I am about to tell you the story of Sam Altman’s Dirty DRAM Deal, or: How the AI bubble, panic, and unpreparedness stole Christmas...But before I dive in, let me make it clear that my RAM kit’s 156% jump in price isn’t a fluke or some extreme example of what's going on right now. Nope, and in fact, I'd like to provide two more examples of how how impossible it is becoming to get ahold of RAM - these were provided by a couple of our sources within the industry:One source that works at a US Retailer, stated that a RAM Manufacturer called them in order to inquire if they might buy RAM from them to stock up for their other customers. This would be like Corsair asking a Best Buy if they had any RAM around.Another source that works at a Prebuilt PC company, was recently given an estimate for when they would receive RAM orders if they placed them now…and they were told December…of 2026!So what happened? Well, it all comes down to three perfectly synergistic events:OpenAI executed two unprecedented RAM deals that took everyone by surprise.The secrecy and size of the deals triggered full-scale panic buying from everyone else.The market had almost zero safety stock left due to tariffs, worry about decreasing RAM prices over the summer, and stalled equipment transfers.Below, we’re going to w...