In the Network of the Conclav: How we "guessed" the Pope using network science

Summary

The sacred silence of the Sistine Chapel will speak again. Following the death of Pope Francis, the Conclave will open on May 7 to elect the 267th pontiff of the Catholic Church. Hundreds of millions of faithful are ready to watch for the white smoke, in the most classic of rituals where mystery and spirituality intertwine with history. But while it is the Holy Spirit who inspires the final word, the choice of the Pope also remains a human, social, and political event. Behind the closed doors of the Conclave, dynamics are at play that closely resemble those of a presidential election or the appointment of a CEO by a board of directors, but with ancient codes and rituals entrusted to a small circle of cardinal electors. How is consensus formed around a candidate? Who really influences the final choice? Is there a map of ecclesiastical power capable of anticipating the strongest names? A group of Bocconi scholars—Giuseppe Soda, Alessandro Iorio, and Leonardo Rizzo—attempt to answer these questions with academic rigor and scientific tools that are unprecedented in this context. The Vatican as a relational ecosystem In their study, the three researchers applied social network analysis methods to the most closed and symbolic world that exists: that of the College of Cardinals. The goal? Not to predict the election with certainty, but to understand which relational structures increase the probability that a cardinal will emerge as a papabile figure. “Our starting point is simple,” explains Giuseppe Soda, professor of organization at Bocconi University, “even in the Church, as in any human organization, relationships matter. The more connected, listened to, and central an individual is in the flow of information, the more likely they are to become a unifying figure.” The research team reconstructed a multilevel model of the ’Vatican network” using three main sources: Official co-memberships (Roman curia dicasteries, commissions, councils, academies): these data reveal who ...