The Deathbed Fallacy

Summary

“Lord Byron on his Death-bed” by Joseph Denis Odevaere This topic has bothered me for years. So now, in a moment of inspiration instigated by Wait But Why and drinking a glass or two of bourbon, I want to hash it out. It is something I call the Deathbed Fallacy. What is the Deathbed Fallacy? People on their deathbeds regret not spending more time of their life with their family, traveling more, worrying less, etc. I’ve heard this truism echoed by growth gurus and spiritualists. It is amplified by newspapers. It comes up at dinner discussions. The origin the list of regrets is the palliative nurse Bronnie Ware who listed the following most common regrets: “I wish I’d had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life others expected of me. I wish I didn’t work so hard. I wish I’d had the courage to express my feelings. I wish I had stayed in touch with my friends. I wish that I had let myself be happier.” All well and good. A bit vague, but seems like solid advice. So what is the problem? The Fallacy The fallacy is to assume that whoever you are on your deathbed knows how you should live your life right now. They wish they would have done things differently, meaning, they think you should do something differently, right now. You should consider yourself over a lifetime not as a single person, but a line of many people with different views and priorities. Now, do you think the last person in that line is wise and all-knowing? There are three reasons to doubt that deathbed-you is a competent guide for your life. The deathbed you is not a reliable advisor. Here’s why. Reason 1: It is not a representative state The deathbed is not a representative state of life, and what you want when you are there might not have much correlation with what would have been the happiest, most satisfactory and/or meaningful life you could have led. The deathbed you is very special in a few ways: They don’t have a future at all. They are about to die, and nothing they think has a be...